This week, production might return to pre-lockdown level.
The Tesla Giga Shanghai plant in China is gradually ramping-up production and already appears to be approaching half of its pre-lockdown output.
The production has been halted on March 28, which caused a collapse of sales/export in April. The company has officially begun resuming production on April 19.
According to the China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), via CnEVPost, in the first month of the recovery (between April 19 and May 19), Tesla has produced a total of about 26,000 Model 3 and Model Y.
It’s not a bad result, considering that the plant remains in a closed-loop system (potentially until mid-June), and that there are parts supply constraints.
In the best months, Tesla was able to achieve wholesale vehicle shipments of 65,000-71,000 units, but the 6-month average (September 2021 – March 2022) was closer to 53,000. It would support the previous reports that the plant was at 45% utilization as of May 17.
During the period, the company has sent from China at least two ships to Europe – each with over 4,000 EVs (4,767 to Slovenia and 4,027 to Belgium).
According to Reuters today’s report, Tesla plans to ramp-up production to pre-lockdown output in Shanghai by Tuesday, May 24 – “a day later than its most recent recovery plan, according to an internal memo seen by Reuters.”
A full production is estimated at 2,600 vehicles per day (compared to 1,000 previously) and up to about 16,000 per week (or over 60,000 per month).
“Tesla will more than double its daily output to 2,600 electric vehicles at its Shanghai plant from Tuesday, according to the memo detailing the plan. That compares to around 1,000 EVs produced on Monday, according to the memo, and would bring Tesla’s weekly output to nearly 16,000 units, the memo showed.”
It is an outstanding news (if confirmed), which makes us confident that the company will be able to overall produce more cars in Q2 than a year ago, when the volume exceeded 206,000.
Nonetheless, the lockdowns probably will reduce the company’s result by 50,000-100,000 units, compared to business as usual scenario.